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Saturday, April 17, 2010

The Mavs and Spurs get their first round playoff series underway this evening marking the fifth time in ten years that Dallas and San Antonio have battled in the NBA’s postseason. The Mavericks took down the Spurs last year in five games, but I don’t imagine it will be that easy for the Mavs this time around.

I expect this series to be a typical Dallas/San Antonio slug fest, and the team that plays better defense will most likely be left standing. Both the Mavs and Spurs had a strong second half to the season, Dallas closed out winning eight of their last ten.



What to Watch For:

- Keep your eyes on the Caron Butler/Richard Jefferson matchup. Jefferson really hasn’t played great for San Antonio this season, averaging only 12 points and 4 rebounds per game. If you remember last year, the Spurs put a lot of their focus on Dirk and JET which opened things up for Josh Howard. I could see the same thing happening in this series with Caron Butler. Jefferson clearly hasn’t been the same player for the Spurs as he was for New Jersey and Milwaukee and I think “Tough Juice” will be able to take advantage.



- How will Rodrigue Beaubois be used? I personally don’t expect Roddy to get much playing time, but if Dallas suffers an injury or someone gets in foul trouble, then the rookie could get thrown into the mix. I wouldn’t mind seeing Rowdy Roddy get a few minutes, but he is prone to those rookie mistakes, so Coach Carlisle has to be careful. If Tony Parker goes off like he did in last season’s matchup, Carlisle might have to try Beaubois on him at some point.



- Will DeShawn Stevenson continue to get minutes? While Shawn Marion was out recovering from an oblique injury, Stevenson stepped in and contributed hugely on the defensive end. I know Stevenson can be non-existent on the offensive end, but he brings a defensive toughness that is needed on this team. I think playing DeShawn Stevenson 5-10 minutes a game would benefit the Mavs tremendously.



- The Mavs now have a two headed monster combo at center in Brendan Haywood and Erick Dampier. How will these guys handle Tim Duncan? This isn’t the same Tim Duncan, but he still has the ability to fill up the stat sheet. Damp has had success against Duncan in the past, but how will Haywood fair?





X-Factor:

The biggest factor I see in this series will be Manu Ginobili and whoever is guarding him. Obi Wan Ginobili is averaging 21 points per game in his last seven outings and is one of the biggest reasons why San Antonio was able to avoid the eighth seed and a first round matchup with the Lakers. I imagine that the Mavs will put Shawn Marion on Ginobili and hope he is able to contain him. Marion has been matched up with opposition’s number one scorer all season, so I don’t know why it would change now. Manu has the ability to put up big numbers and the Mavs will have to slow him down if they hope to have a chance.





Prediction:

The Mavs are the two seed for a reason and the Spurs are the seven seed for a reason. Dallas has played better over the course of the season, and since they acquired Butler, Haywood, and Stevenson from Washington, they now have pieces to make a deep run into the playoffs. I am picking the Mavs to wrap this one up in 6 games.



I will leave you with some other key info you can check out for this series…



Series Schedule

Game 1- Sun April 18: San Antonio at Dallas- 7:00PM (TXA21/TNT)

Game 2- Wed April 21: San Antonio at Dallas- 8:30PM (TXA/21TNT)

Game 3- Fri April 23: Dallas at San Antonio- 8:30PM (TXA21/ESPN)

Game 4- Sun April 25: Dallas at San Antonio- 6:00PM (TXA/21TNT)

Game 5*- Tue April 27: San Antonio at Dallas- TBD (TXA21/TBD)

Game 6 *- Thu April 29: Dallas at San Antonio- TBD (TXA21/TBD)

Game 7 *- Sat May 1: San Antonio at Dallas- TBD (TXA21/TNT)

*if needed (All times are CT)



2010 Season Series: Dallas leads 3-1

- Nov 11, 2009: Mavs- 83 @ Spurs- 92

- Nov 18, 2009: Spurs- 94 @ Mavs- 99

- Jan 8, 2010: Mavs- 112 @ Spurs- 103

- April 14, 2010: Spurs- 89 @ Mavs- 96



2010 Team Stats



SPURS

MAVS

PPG

101.4

102.0

RPG

42.8

41.7

APG

22.3

23.4

FG %

.473

.465

FT %

.740

.816

3 pt. %

.358

.372



Playoff History



SPURS

MAVS

Championships

4

0

Last Championship

2007

Never won title

Last Season

Lost in Western Conference first round

Lost in Western Conference semifinals

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